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     Football system for home win

 

     This system evaluates the chances for home win. The best result we can get is, when there is a high final value for the host. If there is a high negative value,  the win of the guest it is highly possible, but with this football strategy we can predict only the win of the host.

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     If there are two teams A against B, we estimate the chances for home win as follows:
1. Difference in the table between the two teams (negative if team A is below team B currently in the season table)
2. Household Indicator (team A)= the number of home wins (W) minus the number of equal matches (D) and lost matches (L) at home
3. Guest Indicator (team B)= the number of the guest wins (W) plus a number equals as guest (D) minus the number of lost meetings as guest (L)
4. General indicator of the host (team A) for the last 6 games (total home and away) as the points are:

-win at home with 1 goal difference: 1 point
-win at home with 2 goals difference: 3 points
-win at home with 3 and more than 3 goals difference: 6 points
-win as guest with 1 goal difference: 2 points
-win as guest with 2 goals difference: 5 points
-win as guest with 3 and more than 3 goals difference: 7 points
-equal at home: 0 points
-equal as guest: 1 point
-loss at home: -4 points (negative)
-loss as guest: -2 points (negative)           

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   1. Difference in the table between the teams    

   2. WDL - HOME                                  Statistics 1

   3. WDL - AWAY                                  Statistics 2

   4. Last 6 matches        

 

 

Evaluation        Example

30 and more points: Secure victory
21-30  points: Must win
11-20 points: Possible win 
from -10 to +10 points: Probably equal or win with 1 goal nevermind for A or B team 
below -10 points: Be avoided

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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